The last 5 years have been a trip of massive proportions. Blizzard recently attained 1 million World of Warcraft subscribers in North America (5 Million worldwide). Sony's EverQuest maintained between a quarter-million and half-million subscriptions between 2000 and 2005. Ultima Online has had between 100,000 and 250,000 subscribers since mid-1998. Dark Age of Camelot has held steady at around 250,000 subscribers for 4 years and is showing no sign of decline. The new generation of MMORPGs is springing up around us at a frenzied pace as everyone grabs a piece of a rapidly expanding market. How big is that market? Let us for sake of argument assume that there are 5 million MMORPG players in North America. It is a significant number of gamers, but in the grand scheme of computer games, it is still a small number, or is it deceptively small? There has always been a relatively deep line in the sand between your average video game player and a RPG player. While they both may exhibit a marked lack of pigmentation and a proclivity for technology, they (read: we the readers of this article) come from significantly different roots. The average video game player of my generation was most likely the recipient of an Atari 2600 birthday or holiday gift anywhere from 1978 to 1980. In contrast, the average RPG player had a TRS-80, Vic 20, or C64 and a copy of Zork. While members of the two families intermingled and even switched sides occasionally, the rift between the two has always remained enormous. The gaming objectives of both groups are valid and celebrated, they are simply different. Over the years the numbers of Nintendo, Sega and Playstation players skyrocketed, while the RPGers crawled into a niche of the underground gaming scene populated by the Infocom series, the PLATO system, Bard's Tale, Might and Magic, and later, MUDs. Over the years the dividing line between the two gaming styles graduated into a platform separation. Consoles and PCs. All the great action and arcade games were on the console systems, and all the RPG options required a PC. There are exceptions, it isn't entirely black and white of course. 2005 rolls around and all homes have a PC (though the game play capability of the average PC is suspect), and many homes have a console gaming device (if there is a console gamer in the household.) Everyone needs email, not everyone has a Need for Speed. Nevertheless, console games outsell PC games because the barrier to entry is so much smaller. Cheaper device, less support requirements, can be maintained by an 8-year-old, can withstand the abuse of an 8-year-old, and it can't browse porn or get infected by malicious spyware (yet). Simple choice for a household looking to play a few games. But then the RPG gamers show up with a copy of World of Warcraft and start converting their console gaming friends. The machine requirements are low, the game has a low barrier to entry (easy to learn), it has some great action, short and long term goals, and bosses to kill. Suddenly, the console gamers have more options than they know what to do with; building up a great garage of cars in Gran Turismo seems positively block in comparison to the options available in World of Warcraft. World of Warcraft becomes a MMORPG training ground for these converts and the next thing they know they're tackling Guild Wars and Everquest 2 and City of Villains. The console sits on the floor in front of the TV collecting dust, for a really long time. A new console device comes out, but no one cares because they're too busy trying to level a new character on the Horde side. Here is what should be causing the console device and game developers some panic: a console gamer will probably buy 5-10 games per year even if they are a causal gamer. The console games normally have 10-40 hours worth of game play in them which explains the numerous purchases. RPG gamers probably only buy 2-3 games per year, and 1 or 2 of those probably sits on the shelf after a few weeks of play (Guild Wars). How big of a problem is this? A first time World of Warcraft player will spend in excess of 300 hours leveling a single character to 60. If the average console title has 30 hours of play, that equals 10 unpurchased console games. Estimating very lightly, let us say WoW has converted (or at the very least semi-permanently captured) 100,000 console players. 10 games x 100,000 people x $50 a game represents $50 million that is NOT going into the hands of the console gaming market. The average level 70 Everquest player probably has 100 DAYS of game play under their belt. That is 2400 hours of play. Multiply that out and we're talking about a game that cannibalizes a huge part of the gaming market simply by monopolizing player-hours. Interestingly enough, this type of game also saves a player's dollars. The monthly fee equates to about a third of the cost of a new A-List console title. The money invested in console games is usually spread all over the market hitting various platforms, publishers, and studios. Under this new model, all of a player's investment is sunk into one game for an extended period of time. This trend indicates that longer, open ended games will be the killer entertainment software of the next half decade. We will be seeing more games that absorb us in seemingly endless content and seemingly endless replay-value. When we find the one we like (it might take a few false starts) we'll likely plant ourselves there for the better part of 2 years, and it is going to take a massively-multiplayer Resident Evil release to make us even begin to consider buying a new console system, and chances are, it would release on PC before it released on a console system. EDIT 1/6/06: Heartless Gamer posted in the comment section of this post early this morning, but it really isn't a comment, it is a full blown response which is well crafted and fair. He expands on some points that I didn't delve into (but wanted to) and contests some of my observations. I am including it here as an update to the blog entry. I considered crafting a response, but I'll just say two things instead: 1) Who is up for developing a Massively Multiplayer version of Pong with me? and 2) Thanks for the thoughtful comments Heartless_, it is appreciated. Heartless_ wrote: Let me start by saying the new banner is bling! |
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